Anyone thinking that Catalonia will not go ahead with declaring independence on Monday might be in for a nasty surprise. For people watching these events from European soil, it is becoming quite clear that the Catalans are an immovable object and they will indeed go ahead.
Spain is doing everything possible to halt it though.
Firstly, the Spanish supreme court declared that any session of the Catalan parliament on Monday would be deemed unconstitutional and therefore illegal (Monday 9 October is the planned date Mr. Carles Puigdemont, the Catalan separatist leader wants to declare independence).
However, the Catalan foreign affairs chief Raül Romeva explained this will not deter them: "Parliament will discuss, parliament will meet. Every attempt the Spanish government has used to impede things to happen, they have been demonstrated completely not only useless but counter-productive.".
<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="nl"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Peaceful <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Catalonia?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Catalonia</a> will not be intimidated by the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Spanish?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Spanish</a> PM <a href="https://twitter.com/marianorajoy?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@marianorajoy</a> & his BRUTALITY! <a href="https://t.co/0ydp4B2HmC">pic.twitter.com/0ydp4B2HmC</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BBC?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BBC</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SKY?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SKY</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Catalan?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Catalan</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/EU?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#EU</a></p>— BREXIT BRITAIN 🇬🇧 (@EUVoteLeave23rd) <a href="https://twitter.com/EUVoteLeave23rd/status/915925080483430400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">5 oktober 2017</a></blockquote>
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Secondly, and in an incredible fall from grace, Barcelona Commander of Police Josep Lluis Trapero, whose forces were widely praised a few months ago for dealing with the arrest of an ISIS cell in a matter of days after the Barcelona terror attacks, has now been called to appear before a court in Madrid. The accusation is that Mr Trapero’s forces did not help the national police to stop the referendum vote that took place last Sunday. The Spanish government therefore accused Mr Trapero of rebellion against the state. If convicted, Police Commander Trapero faces serious jail time of up to 15 years in prison.
Thirdly, Spanish banks are starting to realize that the secession could actually go ahead. Banco de Sabadell, the second largest bank in Catalonia, has announced they will be moving their Spanish headquarters as of this weekend from Barcelona to Alicante in order to be able to stay in the Eurozone if the secession plans would indeed go ahead.
Though there is no legal precedent, it is widely understood that should Catalonia indeed declare independence, they will immediately be kicked out of the EU and no longer be tolerated to operate the Euro currency in their newly declared republic.
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Lastly, there are unconfirmed reports in the British press that army units have been moved to Barcelona in the last few days.
No matter what happens, we here at The Goldwater will keep you updated.