Just as many other worldwide mainstream media outlets, Mr Peter Baker, the White House correspondent of the New York Times, was surprised when the Democrats decided about 2 weeks ago that in order to counter US President Trump’s relentless campaigning, they needed to call upon former President Obama to join them on the campaign trail full time.
As per the words of the New York Times, former President Obama thus “violates the tradition amongst US Presidents not to criticize your successor.”
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The problem for the Democrats, as even their fan base at the New York Times admits, is that they have no chosen candidate of a similar stature as US President Trump.
Mr Cory Booker, Mr Bernie Sanders, Ms Elizabeth Warren and even Mr Joe Biden are all seen as lightweights compared to President Trump, certainly given the rhetoric that’s being used in this election campaign.
In the end therefore the current midterm election cycle starts to look more like a referendum between Presidents Trump and Obama rather than to be about the candidates for Congress, Senate or Governor.
Related coverage: <a href="http://thegoldwater.com/news/41359-Midterms-Trump-s-Intense-Campaigning-Helps-GOP-Pull-Closer"> Midterms - Trump’s Intense Campaigning Helps GOP Pull Closer</a>.
So who will win? It will probably come down to how minorities, women and youngsters vote this time round. The youngsters normally don’t go out to vote and Democrats need them to. Although they are riled up over some of Mr Trump’s policies (certainly with regards to immigration and foreign policy), it is expected that they won’t turn up in large numbers once again.
Secondly, minorities. Although the Blexit movement and Mr Kanye West’s support for Mr Trump are nice pats on the back, it is the overall expectation that Mr Obama’s campaigning has made a different with African Americans who will go out and vote. As to Hispanics, will they be affected by what Mr Trump has said about them in the past two years or will they consider the strength of the economy?
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Lastly, women. Among women, some 52% of white, college-educated women backed Trump in 2016, whilst this time round the latest polls suggest a massive lead for Democrats in this category of voters as they have more female candidates on the ballot. That could make a huge difference in a lot of suburban House races.
In retrospect, the overall problem for the Democrats is of course is that whilst Obama won, quite convincingly we will admit, the two times that he was campaigning for a Presidential election, the other three times where he campaigned on behalf of Democrats for a Midterm election, he each time lost. Given that polls indicated a strong ‘Blue Wave’ only months ago, the difference has by now been fizzled out as onlookers admit Mr Trump’s relentless campaigning is pulling polls closer together again.
Who will come out on top in the end? We will know tomorrow.
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