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Merkel’s lead in the polls has slipped to an all-time low as Germany’s elections are around the corner. This has provoked some concerns on the likelihood of an unthinkable outcome. New data that has been unveiled points out that Merkel will be in for a rude shock, the new poll indicate that the CDU would get 30% of the vote while the SPD would get 31%. This implies that the SPD’s new head, Martin Schulz, would enter any coalition talks as the leader of the largest party and hence become the Chancellor.
JPM’s Greg Fuzesi pointed out that the recent resignation of Sigmar Gabriel as leader and chancellor candidate of the SPD has caused much attention to be shifted to his replacement Martin Schulz and how he’d discharge his duties.
This unfolds even as Martin has spent most of his career in the European Parliament, most recently as its President, and having been relatively unknown in Germany. A new opinion poll from INSA points out that the SPD is gaining further support and overtaking the CDU/CSU for the first time in decades. However, if elections were held now, the INSA poll states that the CDU would get 30% of the votes while the SPD would get 31% and as a result, Schulz would enter any coalition talks as the leader of the largest party and hence become the Chancellor.
The fact that Schulz is new to the German politics can greatly be attributed to the jump in polls. However, it’s still early to say whether this trend will continue since the election campaign is yet to properly kickoff. Many people are anxiously waiting to see if other polls replicate the swing.
The SPD has managed to get overwhelming support from in all recent polls that are a week or more old and do not show the latest jump in the INSA poll, with that in-mind, there’s no reason to dismiss the INSA poll. The organization is new and the only one that is done purely online.
If a Schulz-led grand coalition or Schulz-led SPD-Green-Left coalition is successful, this would set a different trend in the German politics. Greater fiscal expenditure, center-left policies and investment would characterize a SPD-Green-Left coalition. However, such a coalition would not entirely break from the past.